DavinciJ15: “A more realistic outlook for BTC is anywhere between USD 3,000 USD 6,500."
It's been a while since there has been so much commotion regarding the price of bitcoin (BTC). 2017 was BTC peak point, and it has gone significantly lower since then making many predict the end of BTC.
Now cryptocurrency is once again on the media platform because of a significant increase this April:
“The price of Bitcoin has surged to its highest point since last November, reaching an average of almost $4,850 according to crypto asset price comparison site Coinmarketcap. Having broken the $5,000 mark on some exchanges, the Bitcoin price has since retreated back to around $4,720 at the time of writing.”
Meanwhile, many known people in the crypto space have talked about this rise in the market and have also made predictions about its future.
Fundstrat analyzed Bitcoin's average returns over six months whenever the cryptocurrency traded above or below its 200-day moving average:
“Based on BTC’s trading history, a move above the 200D for BTC is meaningful statistically. When BTC is above its 200D, its win-ratio is 80% compared to a mere 36% when it is below its 200D. And 6M forward returns average 193% compared to a measly 10% when below its 200 [day moving average] – hence, being above the 200D is a big deal.”
Thus: “Bitcoin’s 200-day was set at $4,620, which means a 193% rally would lift the price to about $13,500, a number not seen since January 15, 2018.” Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, also suggests that $25,000 is also “fair” for crypto.
Davinci Jeremie (DavinciJ15), "These types of quotes make people believe in an unlikely scenario."
According to DavinciJ15 a more realistic outlook for the value of BTC is anywhere between USD 3,000 and USD 6,500 assuming there is no black swan event, “this is a very good range in the next six months."
The end of an ongoing bear market or a bull - trap - bounce?
DavinciJ15, "It's both, at the end of the day, anything can happen. We are going to stay in a sideways channel probably between the price range I mentioned above. This will drive people crazy; making them think every time BTC goes up it's a new bull run, but in fact, it is just an accumulation phase in BTC."
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